Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

Nintendo officially released the Switch 2 on June 5, 2025, marking the company’s next step in the console market. Sales projections estimate that 13 million units will be sold by the end of the year, driven primarily by demand from existing Nintendo Switch users. The launch is expected to help offset the broader decline in spending on older platforms, including the original Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series consoles.

Although this decline impacts the total market in 2025, analysts predict a recovery in 2026 with the release of high-profile titles such as Grand Theft Auto VI. Further growth is anticipated from the arrival of the next-generation PlayStation and Xbox consoles in late 2027.

Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

According to Ampere Analysis, initial sales of the Switch 2 are expected to slightly exceed the launch performance of the original Switch. However, the longer-term sales trajectory will be slower. Projections suggest that cumulative sales could reach 104 million units by 2030. This figure is below the 120 million units achieved by the original Switch within a similar timeframe, which had benefitted from increased demand during the pandemic.

Nonetheless, Nintendo’s share of the global console hardware market is projected to grow significantly, potentially reaching close to 50 percent by 2027. This growth is largely attributed to the timing of Sony and Microsoft’s hardware transitions, which leaves a gap that Nintendo is well-positioned to fill.

Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

Compatibility and Cross-Generation Support

By the end of 2026, the total active user base across the original Switch and the Switch 2 is expected to approach 130 million. This combined installed base highlights the strategic importance of backward compatibility and cross-generation software publishing. The ability to play existing Switch games on the new hardware encourages users to transition to the Switch 2 without losing access to previous purchases.

More than 95 percent of physical and digital titles from the original Switch are compatible with the new console, creating a strong incentive for existing users to adopt the Switch 2 as their primary platform. This compatibility also enables continued software sales and broader monetisation opportunities across both generations of devices, with expectations that the combined active base will peak around 2028.

Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

Enhanced Online Features to Improve User Retention

Nintendo has introduced new online functionalities with the Switch 2 to bring its digital experience more in line with industry standards. One of the key additions is GameChat, a voice chat feature that allows users to communicate more easily within games. This feature addresses a significant concern among players, as a previous consumer survey showed that 28 percent of churned Nintendo Switch Online subscribers cited friends using other services as a reason for cancelling their subscription.

GameChat is available for free until March 2026, after which it will become a feature exclusive to Nintendo Switch Online members. This change is part of Nintendo’s broader effort to encourage growth in its subscription services, which remain a relatively underdeveloped area of its business model.

Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

Software Releases and Monetisation

Nintendo is taking a structured approach to content for the Switch 2, with early adopters expected to spend over $2 billion on software in 2025. Over the next two years, software sales are projected to reach between $7 billion and $8 billion. The launch line-up includes two new first-party titles—Mario Kart World and Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour.

Although limited at launch, this approach aligns with Nintendo’s historical pattern. For example, the original Switch launched with just three first-party games. Upcoming releases such as Donkey Kong Bananza, set for July 17, 2025, are timed to maintain ongoing interest and spread consumer spending over a longer period. Additional software support includes new editions of existing titles, available either as standalone purchases or as upgrades for owners of the original games.

For example, Nintendo Switch Online + Expansion Pack members can access selected upgrade packs, such as for The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom, at no extra cost. Select games—including Pokémon Scarlet/Violet, Super Mario Odyssey, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom—will receive free updates to enhance performance or integrate new features like GameShare and mouse controls. This focus on enhancing catalogue titles supports content continuity during the early phase of the Switch 2 lifecycle.

Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

Third-Party Partnerships and In-Game Monetisation

The Switch 2 is also expected to strengthen Nintendo’s relationships with third-party publishers. Improved hardware performance allows for a broader range of third-party content, including special editions, ports of existing games, and multi-platform releases. Some editions will offer features exclusive to the Switch 2, encouraging users to purchase additional copies even if they already own a title on another platform.

This increased third-party presence will play a key role in maintaining user engagement within the Nintendo ecosystem. In-game monetisation is expected to become a more prominent part of Nintendo’s revenue strategy. While historically cautious about microtransactions, Nintendo is forecast to gradually increase implementation of this model in its first-party titles.

Industry analysts project that in-game monetisation could grow to represent more than 20 percent of Nintendo console software revenue by 2028, up from less than 10 percent in 2024. This shift has the potential to add $1 billion to $2 billion in annual spending a few years into the Switch 2 cycle, driven primarily by third-party developers but supported by Nintendo’s evolving approach.

Nintendo Switch 2 to Sell 13M Units in 2025

Outlook for Nintendo in the Console Market

The launch of the Switch 2 marks an important moment in Nintendo’s long-term strategy to maintain relevance and growth in the gaming industry. With a strong user base, backward compatibility, measured content rollout, and an evolving online infrastructure, the Switch 2 is positioned to deliver consistent engagement and revenue through the remainder of the decade. As competitors prepare for their next-generation hardware, Nintendo’s early move with the Switch 2 could secure a leading position in the global console market for several years.